Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for ,
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
![]() |
Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
000 FXUS66 KLOX 251924 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1224 PM PDT Mon Sep 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS...25/225 AM. Skies will be mostly clear through the period save for coastal night through morning low clouds and fog. Temperatures will gradually warm in most areas through mid week. Max temps will approach normal values Tuesday or Wednesday. Gusty Sundowner winds are expected to peak over southern Santa Barbara County on Tuesday into Wednesday. Cooler conditions are forecast towards the end of week. A slight chance of rain will develop on Saturday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...25/937 AM. ***UPDATE*** Visible satellite imagery indicates the recent development of an eddy just off the LA coast. This feature is maintaining widespread marine stratus across the LA County coast and beaches, and should continue to do so into the early afternoon. The updated forecast reflects a somewhat slower clearing trend in these areas. However, the marine layer is quite shallow, and partial clearing is anticipated later this afternoon. No other appreciable changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. High temperatures today are expected to be a few to several degrees below normal in most areas, and may not rise above 80F in the portions of LA County where marine stratus is slowest to erode. ***From Previous Discussion*** The marine layer is about 1000 ft deep and the onshore gradients are weak and similar to ydy. Marine layer stratus has been slow to develop and currently is mostly confined to the Central Coast. Short Range high rez ensemble based fcsts still show a good chc (70 percent) of low clouds covering most of the LA/VTA csts/vlys a little after dawn. The low clouds will clear later this morning and skies will be sunny. Max temps were supposed to warm today but warming is now going to be confined the coast where there will be a little less marine influence. A little south push will bring several degrees of cooling to most of LA county. Moderate onshore flow to the east will bring local gusts to 45 mph to the Antelope Vly foothills this afternoon. High pressure building in behind a weak and dry front will create a decent northerly gradient and gusty northwest to north winds for southern Santa Barbara County and the mountains near the I-5 corridor. There may be a need for a low end advisory across the western SBA south coast tonight. Tuesday will see a big warm up as rising hgts combine with much weaker onshore flow to the east and actual offshore flow from the north. This offshore push will limit the morning low clouds. Max temps will rise 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees under sunny skies and the offshore flow. The exception to the warming will occur near he Kern county line where the offshore flow will usher in some cooler air from the interior. Despite the warming most of the area will see below normal max temps with only the SBA south coast and Santa Ynez Vly will have above normal temps. Even stronger north to south flow will occur Tuesday night with advisory level winds likely (70-80 percent chance) for the Santa Ynez mountains and possibly extending into portions of the South Coast, especially near Gaviota. There is a 30-40 percent chance of advisory level gusts (45-50 mph) through the the I-5 corridor. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the next 7 and it will be the first day of above normal temps for many areas after 14 consecutive days of below normal max temps. There will be offshore flow from both the east and north in the morning with the northerly gradient remaining offshore through the afternoon. Look for 2 to 4 degrees of warming with the warmer vly locations topping out in the lower 90s. The offshore flow should eliminate any marine layer clouds. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...25/328 AM. The deterministic GFS and EC are in good agreement through Sunday and their respective ensembles also exhibit good cohesion. So there is pretty good confidence in the xtnd fcst. The warm up will come to a screaming halt on Thursday as a west coast trof deepens and moves into the state. Onshore flow will increase through the day. The marine layer will begin to reform. The falling hgts and stronger onshore flow will combine to lower max temps by 5 to 10 degrees. More of the same on Friday. The trof will be deeper. The gradients will be more onshore. The marine layer clouds will be more extensive. Max temps will fall another 3 to 6 degrees. Max temps will end up 6 to 12 degrees blo normal. The trof will develop into a cut off low and move into the northern half of the state. Hgts will fall to about 565 dam and a decent lobe of PVA will sweep over Srn CA. The combination of lift from the upper low and the moisture from a deep marine layer has about a 20 percent chc of creating some light rain or drizzle through the day across the csts/vlys/cstl slopes south of Pt Conception. It will probably a mostly cloudy day south of Pt Conception. It will be the coolest day of the next 7 with 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees of additional cooling. The warmest temps will only be in the mid 70s and max temps will end up 8 to 16 degrees blo normal. The upper low will slowly pull out to the NE on Sunday. The cold air advection from Saturday will likely not allow for any marine layer clouds. The extra sunshine and slightly higher hgts will likely bring a few degrees of warming but it will still be a very chilly way to start off October. && .AVIATION...25/1923Z. High confidence in the current forecast for the desert terminals. Low-to-moderate confidence in the current forecast for coastal and valley terminals. Timing of arrival could be significantly off tonight. For coastal terminals there is a 10 percent chance of earlier arrival of IFR to MVFR conditions (as early as 05-08Z). There is a 20 percent chance that conditions could be one category higher than forecast at Central Coast terminals. There is a 20 percent chance of IFR- MVFR cigs at KBUR, KVNY, and a 10 percent chance at KSBA. There is 30 percent chance of no cigs developing at KPRB, KSBP, and KOXR and KCMA. KLAX... OVC008-OVC012 cigs may develop up to 4 hours earlier than forecast. Light east winds are expected from 11Z-17Z, with a 20% chance of an east wind component above 8 kts. KBUR...There is a 20 percent chance of several hours of BKN008-BKN015 cigs from 10Z-16Z. No wind impacts are expected at this time. && .MARINE...25/936 AM. High confidence in the current forecast through Thursday, then moderate confidence thereafter. There is a moderate chance that winds could be stronger and seas much higher between Thursday and Saturday. For the waters northwest through southwest of the Channel Islands, the chances for SCA conditions will increase each day through Tuesday. A 50-70 percent chance of SCA conditions by this afternoon and evening will increase to a 80-100 percent of widespread SCA conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Widespread SCA conditions with hazardous seas are virtually certain from Tuesday through Thursday. There is a 40-60 percent chance of Gale Force winds, especially during afternoon and evening hours. A Gale Watch is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. There is a moderate-to-high chance of SCA conditions lingering into Friday and Saturday. Gales are possible again over the weekend. For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, winds and seas will generally remain below SCA levels through early Tuesday. There is a 30-40 percent chance of SCA level winds this afternoon and evening increasing to 80-90 percent chance by Tuesday afternoon. Widespread SCA conditions are very likely to virtually certain between Tuesday and Thursday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20-30 percent chance for Gale Force winds Tuesday afternoon and evening, increasing to 40-50 Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a moderate chance of SCA conditions lingering into Friday and Saturday. Inside the southern California bight, chances for SCA level winds will increase to 60-80 percent this afternoon and evening. There is a 40-60 percent chance of widespread SCA conditions (winds and seas) between Tuesday and Thursday. The highest chances are during the afternoon and evening hours across the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel. Additionally for the Santa Barbara Channel a Gale Watch is in effect for Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. && .BEACHES...25/939 AM. There is a 50 percent chance that high surf conditions could develop between Tuesday evening and Thursday as a moderately long- period northwest swell building off the California coast. The highest chance for high surf is for west and northwest facing shores along the Central Coast. For theses beaches expect surf of 8 to 12 ft with local sets to 14 feet possible. Additionally for Ventura County beaches, there is a 50 percent chance of elevated surf developing as soon as Tuesday evening and lasting through Thursday. For west and northwest facing beaches, surf of 4 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet possible. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Thursday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect from 9 PM PDT this evening through Thursday evening for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Tuesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Cohen/Rorke AVIATION...Hall/Schoenfeld MARINE...Hall/RS BEACHES...Hall/RS SYNOPSIS...30 weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS , (LOX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.