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000 FXUS66 KLOX 010400 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 800 PM PST Tue Jan 31 2023 .SYNOPSIS...31/716 PM. Santa Ana winds will continue through Wednesday over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, but likely below advisory level. Chilly temperatures are expected each morning in the coldest locations through Thursday, with the lowest temperatures Wednesday morning. A slow warming trend is expected through Saturday. Light rain is possible north of Santa Barbara Saturday night into Sunday morning, followed by gusty north to northeast winds early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...31/715 PM. ***UPDATE*** Santa Ana winds are on their way down this evening and all wind headlines have been allowed to expire. Some of the typically windier spots such as Magic Mountain Truck Trail are still gusting in the 40 mph range. Otherwise gusts through the Santa Ana wind corridor away from the coast are gusting mainly below 30 mph. The offshore winds have allowed clear skies with not a cloud anywhere nearby according to satellite imagery. Spots that will be sheltered from wind will be quite chilly tonight thanks to the clear skies and dry air. Frost Advisories will be in effect tonight for the Central Coast, Santa Ynez Valley, Santa Barbara South Coast, and Ojai Valley with lows of 32 to 35 expected. The Antelope Valley will be even colder, with lows in the 20s expected, thus a Hard Freeze Warning will be in effect. Areas that will see some wind will likely be moderated with lows in the 40s. Heights are expected to rise on Wednesday as a ridge nudges in from the Eastern Pacific. Gradients remain offshore, but are trending weaker from today. This should keep the northeast winds going across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Upper-level support is trending weaker as well, so in all expecting a weaker wind event than today. Fairly good confidence winds will widely be below advisory level, with gusts of 25 to 45 mph peaking Wednesday morning. As is typical, those outlier windier spots may gust higher. The ridging and weaker offshore flow will combine to bring a bit of warming to the region with highs in the mid- to upper-60s across the Ventura and Los Angeles metro areas. ***From Previous Discussion*** Otherwise, pretty quiet weather now through Friday. Daytime highs will slowly warm through the period, reaching the low 70s by Friday. Increasing high clouds Thursday ahead of the next weather system becoming mostly cloudy by Thursday night. Models have really scaled back on this first of two systems for later this week and now only a small percentage have rain even for SLO County. So pops have been reduced to under 15% all areas Friday and rain has been removed from the official forecast. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...31/157 PM. Another mild day Saturday with highs reaching the lower 70s across the warmer valleys. The second of two systems will be approaching from the west leading to increasing clouds along the Central Coast through the day. While models scaled back the rain chances with the first system Friday, the number of ensemble members showing rain for Sunday north of Pt Conception continues to grow. Pops remain on the lower side though given the lack of model stability run to run but at least for the SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties chances for rain there Sat night into Sunday are looking more favorable. Still rather light with most areas at or under a third of an inch. Farther south it`s quite a bit less likely for any sort of meaningful rain. Deterministic runs show a front coming through LA/Ventura Counties very early Sunday with little if any southerly flow. With most of the storm energy well to the north and not much upslope flow to help out probably the most that can be expected would be some drizzle or very light precip that may not even measure. Best chances would be eastern LA County due to somewhat more favorable low level flow there up against the San Gabriels. The front is through the area Sunday afternoon with clearing skies and much cooler temperatures. Following the frontal passage increasing north to northwest winds are expected late Sunday into early Monday, especially in the mountains. Then shifting to northeast late Monday into Tuesday, possibly leading to advisory level Santa Ana`s in some areas. The offshore flow will help temps warm up several degrees across coast and valleys. && .AVIATION...01/0048Z. At 0024Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. High confidence in TAFs. Periods of moderate to strong turbulence and LLWS are possible at Ventura and Los Angeles County terminals through the evening. KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of north winds of 10 kt through 05Z. Any east winds will be less than 7 knots. KBUR...High confidence in TAF. Moderate to strong turbulence and LLWS are possible through the evening. && .MARINE...31/758 PM. Moderate confidence in the current forecast. For the waters along the Central Coast and the outer waters south to Santa Cruz Island, winds and seas will very likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through at least Thursday morning. There is a 20% chance of north to northwest SCA level winds south of Point Conception briefly on Wednesday afternoon. An increasing chance of widespread SCA conditions will develop over the weekend with a 60-80 percent chance of at least SCA conditions between Saturday and Monday. There is a 20-40 percent chance of GALES developing, highest between Saturday night and Sunday night. Inside the southern California bight and southeast of San Nicolas Island, SCA level winds will continue for the nearshore waters between Point Mugu and Santa Monica through Wednesday morning. These winds will create short period, hazardous seas during this time. It is possible that winds drop below SCA levels for the majority of the area and remain confined to the extreme nearshore waters from Point Mugu to Malibu tonight into Wednesday morning. Thus the SCA may be cancelled early. Better confidence with winds and seas dropping below SCA levels between Wednesday afternoon and Sunday. However, there is a 20% chance of brief NW SCA level winds from Santa Cruz Island south to San Nicolas Island Wednesday afternoon. Then, there is a 40 percent chance of widespread SCA conditions between Sunday and Monday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Hard Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for zones 340-341-346>350-357. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Wednesday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Stewart/MW AVIATION...Stewart MARINE...Sweet/Lund SYNOPSIS...Stewart weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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