Acton Weather

655
FXUS66 KLOX 141025
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
225 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...13/807 PM.

Multiple periods of light to moderate rain is expected well into
next week, with the first round ending by Saturday morning. There
will be a break this weekend, with the next round set for around
Monday, then the next around Thursday. The risk of significant
impacts and flooding with any of these storms is low, with
generally light to moderate rain. Temperatures will remain at or
below normal. Very large surf will bring coastal impacts well into
next week, largest on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...14/125 AM.

Overall, latest models in good synoptic agreement through the
short term period. Basically, a cold front will move out of the
area this morning with a weak upper ridge prevailing this
afternoon through Sunday. However on Monday, another cold front
will sweep across the area.

Forecast-wise, no major changes to previous thinking. Scattered
showers will continue through this morning, but will end by this
afternoon. At this time, based on current rainfall rates around
0.10 or less per hour, do not anticipate any significant
hydrologic issues this morning. Additional rainfall accumulations
will be under 0.25 inches. With the rain ending by this afternoon,
skies will clear and high temperatures should be rather nice,
topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For tonight and Sunday, the weak upper level ridge overhead will
keep the area dry. High temperatures on Sunday will bump up a
couple degrees with widespread mid 60s to mid 70s.

Beginning Sunday evening, the next cold front will approach the
area. This front will sweep across the area Sunday night through
Monday night. At this time, this front does not look too
impressive. Current QPF forecasts are very meager with 0.25 inches
or less expected across the area (with the best totals across
northwest San Luis Obispo county). Snow levels look to drop to
around 5000 feet Monday evening/night, so a dusting of snow would
not be out of the question. Northwesterly winds are expected to
increase across the I-5 Corridor and the Santa Ynez Range Monday
night with a 30-40% chance of advisory-level winds (especially
through the I-5 Corridor).

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...14/125 AM.

For the extended period, models continue to indicate an unsettled
pattern for the area. On Tuesday, a flat upper level ridge will
keep the area rain-free, but temperatures will remain on the cool
side with coastal/valley area in the 60s.

For Wednesday and Thursday, models are in agreement with another
system impacting the area. At this time, the ECMWF is a bit faster
with the associated cold front than the GFS. So, confidence in
timing remains low, but high confidence in measurable rainfall
between Wednesday and Thursday night. Looking at QPF amounts, this
particular frontal passage could be a bit more impressive with
deterministic models indicating rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch
range. Ensemble forecasts also seem to be leaning towards a bit
more impressive frontal system than previous ones. Given the
potential for some decent southerly flow, orographic effects could
easily generate such totals across the foothills. Of course, a lot
could change between now and then, so expected totals could
change noticeably.

On Friday, there may be some lingering showers in the morning
hours. However, the balance of the day is expected to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1024Z.

At 1000Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer and no marine
inversion.

For the 12Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current
forecasts. Through 17Z, moderate confidence in forecasts as timing
of flight category changes could be +/- 3 hours of current
forecasts. After 17Z, high confidence in CAVU conditions for all
sites.

KLAX...Overall, good confidence in 12Z TAF. Through 17Z, there is
a 40-50% chance of MVFR CIGs. After 17Z, high confidence in CAVU
conditions. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Overall, good confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation
of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 15Z forecast.
Otherwise, CAVU conditions are expected this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...14/124 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in a
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas.
Dangerously large seas are expected to peak today (18-24 feet)
with a secondary peak expected on Monday (12-18 feet).
Additionally, there is a 50% chance of Gale force winds on Monday
and Tuesday.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, a combination of SCA
level winds and seas are expected. Dangerously large seas are
expected to peak today (14-21 feet) with a secondary peak on
Monday (11-16 feet).

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, high
confidence in SCA level winds, mainly across western sections
with SCA level seas developing. For Sunday, winds and seas are
expected to drop below SCA levels. For Monday through Wednesday,
high confidence in SCA level winds developing with a 50% chance of
SCA level seas. Additionally, there is a 30-40% chance of Gale
force winds developing.

With the expected large west-northwesterly swell this weekend,
there is the threat of dangerous breaking waves at Ventura and
especially Morro Bay harbor entrances. Refer to the Marine Weather
Statement which has been issued (MWSLOX) for more details.

Periodic rain can be expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.BEACHES...14/127 AM.

A series of very large, long period west-northwesterly swells
will impact the coastline of southwest California through at least
Tuesday of next week, creating large surf and dangerous
conditions at all coasts. Largest surf will be focused along west
to northwest facing shores and surf is expected to peak today
with a potential secondary increase Monday. Moderate to significant
beach erosion and shallow flooding of sea water over low-lying
beach walkways, parking lots, and roads is likely, especially in
the morning hours near high tide. Large surf will create dangerous
rip currents, along with strong long shore currents, potential
sneaker waves, and large shore pound. Impacts will be less for
south-facing shores.

The highest risk will be for the Central Coast with potential for
localized damage to the most vulnerable areas - such as to piers,
roads, and structures. High Surf and Coastal Flood WARNINGS are in
effect for the Central Coast with impacts such as breaking waves
at Morro Bay Harbor entrance and Pismo and Cayucos Piers, as well
as widespread sandy beach flooding - including Oceano Dunes State
Park and other vulnerable low lying areas (especially during high
tide). Surf heights are expected to reach 18-25 feet, highest at
west-northwest facing beaches.

For west-facing beaches in LA/Ventura counties, high surf
advisories are in effect with high surf expected to continue
through at least Tuesday. There may be a relative "lull" in the
surf Sunday before the second swell arrives, but surf and rip
currents will still be hazardous. Surf is expected to peak
today and there is a low chance for WARNING level surf at Ventura
County beaches. Hazardous breaking waves are expected at Ventura
Harbor entrance today - refer to MWSLOX for more details.
Additionally, moderate coastal flooding is likely today around
high tide in the late morning, thus Coastal Flood Advisories have
been issued.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Tuesday afternoon
      for zone 87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zones
      340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 4 AM PST early this
      morning for zones 349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 AM PST Sunday for zones
      349-350. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Tuesday for zones
      354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Coastal Flood Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST this
      afternoon for zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
BEACHES...Lewis/Black/RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox