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FXUS66 KLOX 192348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
348 PM PST Sun Jan 19 2020

.SYNOPSIS...19/134 PM.

Dry and warmer conditions continue today with gusty offshore winds
over eastern Ventura and northern Los Angeles Counties. Conditions
will be cloudy and cooler early in the week with a slight chance
of light showers across the region late Monday through Tuesday,
then dry and warmer weather returns for the remainder of the week.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...19/137 PM.

Minimal changes to the forecast this week. High clouds have
thickened up but temps managed to get close to 80 in parts of the
San Gabriel Valley today. Gradients have already peaked and are
starting to trend back onshore which will mean cooler temps for
coast/valleys Monday, perhaps as much as 5-10 degrees. Still quite
cloudy with the high overcast but no precip until at least Monday

At that point the models diverge quite a bit with the GFS
remaining quite dry while virtually all of the ECMWF ensemble
members show at least some very light rain for all but SLO County
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Moisture is still pretty high
based (mostly at or above 700mb) and it`s quite possible that
we`ll see sprinkles everywhere but actual measurable rain in only
isolated areas and higher chances in LA County. In any case,
impacts will be minimal as there aren`t any model solutions that
show more than a few hundredths. Temps Tuesday will cool a few
more degrees in most areas.

And that may be the end of our precip chances during this period.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show the very southern edge of a system
clipping SLO County but again any rain would be very light. Some
clearing expected late Tuesday in the south but increasing clouds
again with that next system early Wednesday. Slight warming
expected Wednesday with ridging starting to develop and weaker
onshore flow but most areas still running a degree or two below

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...19/156 PM.

The Wednesday ridge will continue to build over the area through
Thursday while gradients turn lightly offshore. Most areas will
see a nice bump in temps but especially coast/valleys due to the
offshore push. Not expecting enough offshore flow for advisory
level winds but some 15-25 mph breezes possible in the favored
areas. Highs expected to climb into the 70s most coast/valley
locations south of Pt Conception.

A weak trough cuts under the ridge to the south on Thursday but
this will have little or no impact and the light offshore flow
will continue through at least Saturday with similar temps.

The ridge breaks down Sunday as a trough approaches from the west.
The models differ quite a bit with this one as the EC is wetter
and faster. Looks like most of the precip should arrive after
sunset Sunday, especially LA/Ventura Counties, but leaving in some
low pops southern zones as we`re still a week out. EC ensembles
showing around a half to an inch of rain northern areas and a
half or less in the south.



At 2345Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion present.

High confidence in all 00Z TAFs with VFR conditions expected
through this evening. As flow trends onshore, moderate confidence
in MVFR cigs redeveloping at KSBP and KSMX on Monday morning.
There is also a 20 percent chance of MVFR cigs redeveloping Monday
morning or early afternoon for coastal TAF locations south of
Point Conception. There is also a 30 percent chance of dense
fog reforming at KPRB early Monday morning.

LAX...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions expected
through tonight. There is a 20 percent chance of MVFR cigs
redeveloping Monday morning or early afternoon. Good confidence
the east wind component will be 6 kt or less 13Z-19Z Mon.

KBUR...High confidence in the 00Z TAF with VFR conditions
expected through Monday.


.MARINE...19/1159 AM.

Southern inner waters, SCA winds are not expected through at
least Tuesday across all coastal waters.

SCA level NW winds are likely across the outer waters Wed, and
there is also a 50% chance of SCA level wind gusts at times over
parts of the outer waters on Thursday.

There is high confidence that seas will reach or exceed 10 ft Tue
night thru Wed across the outer waters and northern inner waters
as a large, long period west to northwest swell overspreads the
waters. Seas could approach 8 ft across the SBA Channel.





No significant hazards expected.




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