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000 FXUS66 KLOX 052121 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 221 PM PDT Mon Jun 5 2023 .SYNOPSIS...05/219 PM. A low pressure system will bring much cooler weather through Wednesday, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cooler air mass is likely to remain through the rest of the week with extensive low clouds and possible drizzle during the night and morning hours. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...05/210 PM. Our first storm fired up right near the SLO/Santa Barbara/Kern triple point and is moving northwest into southeastern SLO County. This should be the first of many convective cells that develop through early Tuesday, focusing on SLO County and the far northern part of SB County. PG&E cameras indicate not much is reaching the ground so far, in line with the forecast soundings showing LCL`s in the 8-10k feet level. However, overnight the LCL`s are expected to drop to around 5-7k feet, and PW`s are expected to increase to close to 1.2" which is around 250% of normal. So there is plenty of moisture available and with CAPE`s around 2000j/kg and lapse rates around 9c/km there is the potential for some strong storms overnight. Primary concerns will be heavy rain, gusty winds (DCAPEs between 600-1000j/kg), and frequent lightning. Storms will be moving in from the east and should continue on to the coast and over the adjacent coastal waters. Virtually all the ensemble members are still showing rain across that area tonight so confidence is on the high side. Elsewhere activity is expected to fairly minimal. Stability parameters are considerably less favorable across LA County. Main forecast issue there is the deep marine layer and possible overnight drizzle/light rain. Could see that tonight and/or Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain well below normal everywhere with the combination of storms and marine layer. The upper low will wobble around the area through Wednesday and is expected to exit to the east by Wednesday night. Latest models continue to favor SLO and northern Santa Barbara Counties for some additional showers and possible storms Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, lower confidence in this as a lot depends on exactly where the upper low drifts to. Can`t rule out an isolated storm over the mountains and into the Antelope Valley on Wednesday, though forecast soundings are still not favorable for those areas. Another deep marine layer day Thursday with slow clearing and cool temperatures. With the low expected to be east of the area by then chances for afternoon thunderstorms are minimal. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...05/218 PM. The cooler than normal pattern is expected to continue into early next week as another upper low moves in this weekend. This one is approaching from the northwest but still has some moisture with it. Although rain chances are mostly under 10 percent currently, it`s possible those will rise as we get closer to the weekend and have more confidence in the orientation and track of the low as well as the moisture content. It`s also possible that thunderstorms will be added to the forecast. At the very least there is high confidence in a continued cool pattern with a possibility of early morning drizzle for coast/valleys. && .AVIATION...05/1913Z. At 1815Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 4300 feet. The top of the inversion was 5200 feet with a temperature of 14 degrees Celsius. Low confidence in the 18Z TAF package. A low pressure system directly overhead is causing some havoc and uncertainty regarding cloud cover and the threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Deepening marine layer will likely keep coastal/valley sites cloudy through the day, with little confidence in timing of flight category changes, due to multiple cloud layers. North of Point Conception, there is a 20-25% chance of thunderstorms at TAF sites from this afternoon through tonight. Gusty winds are expected in the Antelope Valley. KLAX...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance that VFR CIGs could develop 20Z-03Z. There is a 20% chance of a light shower. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Low confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance that VFR CIGs could develop 21Z-03Z. There is a 20% chance of a light shower. && .MARINE...05/852 AM. For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal and the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in current forecast. Today through Friday, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. From this afternoon through Tuesday morning, an upper level low pressure system will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the area, mainly north of Point Conception. && .BEACHES...05/1150 AM. A south swell of 2 to 4 feet with a 16 second period will arrive on the south facing beaches today and Tuesday. At the same time, a full moon tide of near 7 feet is expected into this evening. At this time, local wave sets of 5 feet may be possible, but minor coastal overflow at the time of high tide is not expected to affect any areas of the coast. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Sweet/RAT MARINE...Sweet/RAT BEACHES...Sweet/RAT SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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