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FXUS66 KLOX 232342 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
342 PM PST Wed Jan 23 2019

Updated Aviation section

.SYNOPSIS...23/1246 PM.

Gusty offshore winds, fair skies and warm conditions are expected
to continue through the week and into the weekend. Cooler
temperatures are possible by early next week as low pressure
moves into the area.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...23/206 PM.

Offshore gradients to continue through the weekend with possibly
enough upper level support by late Thursday to support low end
advisory level winds across parts of Ventura and LA Counties.
Winds strengthen a bit further Friday into Saturday so a better
chance of advisory level winds by the weekend. Temps will warm up
a few more degrees Thu then not much change Fri/Sat, generally
topping out in the mid 70s at lower elevations. Overnight lows
will be chilly in wind protected locations but expected to be
slightly warmer the next couple nights.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...23/213 PM.

Gradients start trending onshore Sunday as a trough starts to drop
south out of the Canadian Rockies so look for coast/valleys to
cool off a couple degrees, though remaining at least 3-6 degrees
above normal. The main cool down will be Monday with highs
dropping back into the 60s most areas with light onshore flow in

Models still supporting a strong offshore gradient developing
Tuesday behind the trough passage. Both the GFS and ECMWF were
weaker than earlier runs but more so the GFS. The one big factor
lacking at least on the operational runs is upper support. Most of
the trough energy and cold air remain too far to the east so while
the surface gradient should still be enough to generate advisory
level winds the minimal upper support could keep it from being an
even bigger Santa Ana event. Gradients weaken quite a bit Wed so
it would mostly be a one day wind event.



At 23Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance
of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 04Z and 15Z at
terminals north of Point Conception, and south of Point
Conception after 10Z. There is a chance of VLIFR to LIFR
conditions between 13Z and 17Z at KPRB.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
10 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
10Z. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after


.MARINE...23/1249 PM.

For the Outer Waters, fairly high confidence in the forecast.
Winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels thru Sun. There is a 30% chance of SCA level winds tonight
thru Thu evening, mainly across the northern two zones (PZZ670-673).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, mostly high confidence
in the forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Sun.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Winds will remain below SCA levels
in the short term.

There is a 20% chance of SCA level NE winds late Thu night/Fri
morning across eastern portions of the SBA Channel and the southern
inner waters from Pt Mugu to Santa Monica, and a 40% chance of
SCA level winds in these areas late Fri night/Sat morning.





Advisory level north to northeast winds will be possible night
and morning hours Sat for wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties. These areas may have advisory-level to possible
high wind warning level wind gusts Mon night into Tue.




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