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000
FXUS66 KLOX 201242
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
542 AM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...19/817 PM.

Temperatures will remain hot across the region for at least another
week with excessive heat in many areas Tuesday through Thursday.
Overnight and morning low clouds will bring some relief along the
coast. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the region
Friday and in the Ventura County mountains on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...20/303 AM.

The marine layer depth is 1100 feet deep. Onshore grads are about
3 mb onshore and there is no eddy. The stratus deck is slowly
filling in and will cover most of the immediate coastal area by
sunrise. Not much change in todays weather from yesterdays. The
same 596 DM is off to the east with 591DM hgts over CA. The
convective parameters are similar to ydys with decent moisture and
instability but like ydy there is really no kicker in sight. So
20 percent pops (but not higher) for the mtns...Antelope Vly and
the SLO/Kern county line looks good. Max temps will be right at
normals.

Not much change at all for the weather on Saturday. The upper
level flow is more southerly and drier which will cut off the TSTM
threat. The marine layer may be a little better developed which
might lead to a degree or two drop in the beach temps.

The upper level high begins to move to the west on Sunday. Hgts
bump up to 594 DM and sfc gradients relax. These two things will
bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to the area and most areas will be
2 to 4 degrees above normal. There is no monsoon flow and this
will keep convection at bay.

A good NW to SE pressure gradient sets up over SBA county Sunday
evening. This will trigger a sundowner with the strongest winds
focused on areas west of Goleta.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...20/329 AM.

The entirety of next week will be all about the heat.

The large upper high move to the west and strengthens. It will be
centered over the AZ/NM border Mon afternoon then right over AZ
by Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday the high will be over the
CA/NV/AZ intersection with a 600 DM central hgt. Hgts rise from
595 DM Monday to 596 DM then to 598 DM on Wednesday and then fall
about a single DM Thu. Max temps will rise every day Monday
through Wednesday and will likely remain the same on Thursday. On
Wednesday and Thursday max temps will be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Current low temps seem a little low in some places during this
event and there will likely be some upward trends as the event
draws nearer and the gradients and inversions come into closer
focus.

The combination of above normal daytime highs and very warm
overnight lows will produce a dangerous heat event. An excessive
heat watch is in effect now for most of the area from Tuesday thru
Thursday.

A decent north to south gradient sets up on Monday night. There
will be sundowner winds each night as well as the I-5 corridor.
These winds will minimize the marine layer south of Pt Conception.
The current forecast gradients are a little less than they were
ydy and would only result in winds that are just below advisory
levels. Still anywhere there are northerly downsloping winds there
will be much warmer overnight lows.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1203Z.

At 1117Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 1200 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2500 feet with a temperature of
22C.

N of Point Conception...Moderate confidence with VLIFR/LIFR cigs
for KSMX through 14z then briefly IFR before scouring out. Similar
conditions expected once again tonight. +/- 2 hours. 30% chance
that cigs will not lower to VLIFR tonight. 30% that VLIFR/LIFR
cigs will reach KSBP by 14z.

S of Point Conception...Moderate confidence in coastal TAFs
through 18Z with respect to cig timing and IFR/low MVFR cigs. Good
confidence for VFR conds after 18Z Similar timing pattern once
again tonight into Sat morning. Slight chance for TSRA around KWJF
and KPMD after 21z-03z

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12z TAF through 04z. Expect IFR/low
MVFR cigs after 12z . Cigs could clear by 16Z. There is a 10
percent chc of no cigs at all. Good confidence that there will be
no east wind component over 4 kt. Good confidence in TAF between
18z and 04z this eve. +/- 2 hours for return of stratus.

KBUR...High confidence in the 12z CAVU TAF.

&&

.MARINE...20/207 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are not forecast across the
coastal waters thru Sun morning. SCA conds are expected across
the southern two outer waters zones (PZZ673/PZZ676) Sun afternoon
thru Mon. There is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level winds across the
northern outer waters zone (PZZ670) Sun afternoon thru Sun night,
then SCA conds are expected Mon.

Across the inner waters, SCA conds are not expected through Sun.
However, there is a 40% chance of SCA conds across the northern
inner waters and western portions of the SBA Channel Sunday.

Choppy short-period seas will persist across much of the waters
through the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
      Wednesday afternoon for zones 34>38-51. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Excessive Heat Watch in effect from Monday morning through
      Thursday evening for zones 39>41-44>46-52>54-59-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

An extended heat wave is expected Sunday through at least Thursday
of next week, especially for inland areas. Heat advisories and/or
warnings will be likely. Elevated fire weather conditions due to
the extended period of hot and dry conditions, especially southern
Santa Barbara county where gusty sundowner winds will add to the
threat. A long period southerly swell will also bring elevated
surf and strong rip current potential early next week across south
facing beaches coinciding with the heat wave.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Kaplan
MARINE...Kaplan
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles

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