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FXUS66 KLOX 290156

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
656 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...28/616 PM.

A weak cold front will move through the area on Sunday accompanied
with gusty onshore winds and a chance of showers north of Point
Conception and in the mountains. High pressure will start building
on Monday with dry and above normal temperatures expected for the
rest of the week.


.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...28/152 PM.

Weak upper level trough developing off the coast of California
will bring increasing high clouds to the region today, while
maintaining cool temperatures. Scattered light showers have
developed today across Monterey county, with a slight chance of
showers developing north of Morro Bay later this afternoon.
The weak upper trough will push through the region tonight
through Sunday. There will be 20-50 percent pops with this weak
system, mainly north of Point Conception as well as interior areas
of LA/Ventura/SBA counties. The best chance of precipitation for
most of these areas is expected to be Sunday afternoon. Any rain
that does fall with this system is expected to be light, with
totals generally less than a tenth of an inch. Snow levels will
likely remain above 5000 feet and there will not be any snow
issues over the major mountain passes.

The upper trough passage will also usher in gusty west to
northwest winds across portions of the forecast area Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. The strongest winds will be focused
across southern SBA county, the I-5 corridor in the LA county
mountains, and the Antelope Valley, where gusts between 30 and
45 mph will be common. Wind advisories may be needed for portions
of these areas late Sunday.

Dry northwest flow aloft sets up on Monday, with building heights
across the district. This in combination with weak offshore flow
to the north will bring a warming trend on Monday, with warmest
areas peaking into the mid 70s. Northerly offshore flow increases
Monday night into Tuesday morning (with LAX-Bakersfield gradient
expected to peak around -6 mb), which will bring additional
warming to most areas on Tuesday. Warmest coastal/valley areas
could even see temperatures topping 80 degrees by Tuesday. The
north-south offshore pressure gradients combined with some upper
level wind support will enhance gusty northerly winds across
southern SBA county and I-5 corridor Monday night into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...28/327 AM.

Both the EC and GFS agree that there will be dry NW flow over the
area Tue and Wed and then weak ridging on Thu and Fri. It will be
dry all four days.

There will be offshore flow from both the east and north on
Tuesday and this will be the warmest day for the coasts and vlys.
The warmest days for the interior will be Thu and Fri under the

All four days will have warmer than normal max temps and 70s will
be the order of the day, but cannot rule out a few 80 degree
readings in the warmest locations.



At 2350Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion.

Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc of MVFR cigs at any
cst or vly site 10Z-16Z. A 20-30 percent chc of -SHRA at sites
north of Pt Conception after 15Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc BKN025 10Z-
16Z. A 40 percent chc of an 7 kt east wind component 13Z-17Z.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAFs with a 25 percent chc BKN025 10Z-


.MARINE...28/121 PM.

Across the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds and
short period seas will cont thru late tonight for the southern
two zones (PZZ673/676). There is a 30-40% chance that winds will
reach SCA levels across the northern zone this evening. There is
a 30%-40% chance of SCA level winds Sun afternoon into Sun night,
except SCA level winds are likely across the southern zone. SCA
level winds are likely Mon thru Wed. SCA level seas can be
expected for Thu.

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, there is a 20% chance
of SCA level winds this evening. SCA level winds are likely during
evening hours Mon and Tue. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain
generally below SCA levels Sun thru Thu.

Across the inner waters south of Pt Conception, there is a 30%
chance of SCA level winds across western portions of the SBA
Channel this evening. SCA level winds are likely across much of
the area Sun afternoon/evening, then there is a 40% chance of SCA
level winds Mon afternoon/evening for th SBA Channel. Winds and
seas will then remain below SCA levels Tue through Thu.

Overall, there will be an extended period of hazardous short
period seas under 9 seconds through at least Tue.


PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).



No significant hazards expected.




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