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351 FXUS66 KLOX 221101 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 401 AM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS...22/400 AM. A cooler weather pattern will continue into Friday as strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer will remain in place. Night through morning low clouds and fog with drizzle will be a staple of the forecast, struggling to clear from beaches each day. Gusty onshore winds are possible across the interior portions for the latter half of the week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...22/359 AM. A well-entrenched low cloud field is in place across the region this morning as strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer depth remain over the area. Clouds are pushing into the coastal slopes of the Coast Ranges along the Central Coast and into the western portions of the Santa Clarita Valley. A deepening marine layer depth with stronger onshore flow will be the driver of the forecast over the coming days as broad troughing will be anchored along the West Coast. Night through morning low clouds and fog will be a staple of the forecast into late week. Clouds will likely struggle to clear from the beaches and immediate coast over the coming days. Shortwave troughs embedded in the broader trough will bring the possibility of drizzle, especially during the late night and early morning hours. Currently, AMDAR soundings from KLAX indicate a marine layer depth closing in on 1900 feet deep currently, which is slightly higher than what NAM BUFR time height sections indicate. The marine layer depth could top out close to 2500 feet deep this morning, plenty deep enough to produce at least patchy morning drizzle as weak dynamics scrape the area. NAM BUFR time height sections advertise significant deepening of the marine layer depth tonight through Wednesday morning to around 3000 feet deep. A favorable flow pattern with height in the boundary layer should bring a better chance of night through morning drizzle. A deep marine layer depth with extensive low clouds and fog with drizzle is likely to persist into Thursday. The latest surface pressure gradients have moderately strong onshore pressure gradients remaining in place early this morning, more than a millibar more onshore than progged. Gradients should top out close to 9 mb onshore this afternoon, but with another trough approaching the California coast on Wednesday, the gradients could approach 10 mb on Wednesday afternoon. Gusty winds are possible across the interior portion of the area over the next several afternoon and evenings, and there is a moderate chance that a wind advisory may be needed for the foothill portions of the Antelope Valley on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With strong onshore flow in place along with a deeper marine layer depth, a cooler weather pattern will linger into late week. A deeper marine intrusion will push a cooler air mass well into the interior portions of the area through at least Wednesday and likely into late week. Temperatures will likely remain below seasonal normals into late week. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...22/400 AM. Broad troughing will linger into late week with a strong trough expected to move over the region between Friday and Saturday. The forecast ensembles all indicate cooling extending into Saturday. EPS ensemble members continue to indicate a majority of the solutions suggesting precipitation either in the form of light rain or drizzle on Saturday, while GEFS and CMC ensemble members are much drier. A cooler and cloudier weather pattern should be expected for late week. A warming trend will establish for early next week as cluster analysis indicates ridging aloft nosing into the region. There is still quite a bit of ensemble spread due to inconsistencies with how strong the ridge pattern will be. Most favor a strong ridge building into the West Coast, possibly bringing above normal temperatures to the region and weak offshore flow to the Central Coast. The forecast goes with NBM values for the current time. && .AVIATION...22/1051Z. At 1000Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 1700 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2700 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius. For 12Z TAF package, high confidence in desert TAFs and moderate confidence in coastal/valley TAFs. Lower confidence for coastal and valley sites due to uncertainty with timing of flight category changes (could be +/- 3 hours of current forecasts). KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of IFR CIGs 12Z-16Z. Timing of dissipation of CIGs this afternoon could be +/- 2 hours of current 20Z forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of IFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 17Z forecast. timing of return of CIG restrictions this evening could be +/- 2 hours of current 06Z forecast (with a 40% chance of CIGs dropping to IFR levels 06Z-12Z). && .MARINE...22/351 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 50% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts across PZZ670 this afternoon and tonight with conditions below SCA levels across PZZ673/676. For Wednesday through Saturday, northwest winds will increase with a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across all the Outer Waters. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Thursday through Saturday, there is a 60-70% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Thursday and Friday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Saturday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across western sections of the entire southern Inner Waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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