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000
FXUS66 KLOX 010551
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
951 PM PST Thu Feb 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...29/144 PM.

A cold storm system will move through southwest California Friday
through Sunday, focused on Friday afternoon through Saturday
Night. Many hours of light rain, moderate mountain snow, and
strong winds are expected. Dry and cool weather should follow
Sunday Night through at least Tuesday, with a chance for
additional light rain around Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...29/809 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate partly to
mostly cloudy skies from the mountains westward with clear skies
across the Antelope Valley. Steady light rain continues across
northwest San Luis Obispo county with scattered showers elsewhere.
So far, totals are generally less than one tenth of an inch,
although Rocky Butte is reporting almost an inch. Southwest winds,
gusts in the 35-45 MPH range, continue to be observed across the
mountains and Antelope Valley foothills.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main concern will be
the rain. Latest guidance indicate steady rain will work its way
south and east overnight. Through early Friday morning, rain
totals will generally be around 0.10 inches or less, but amounts
up to around 1.00 inch can be expected across northwest San Luis
Obispo county. So, do not anticipate any hydrologic issues in the
short term. As for winds, latest observation trends indicate winds
are slowly diminishing. So, will let the WIND ADVISORY for the AV
foothills expire at 1000 PM.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the rain timing
through the overnight period. So, other than cleaning up headlines
when expiring the WIND ADVISORY, no significant updates are
expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Ample clouds remain in many valleys and mountains thanks to the
lingering effects of the deep marine layer this morning. This
should remain the case into Friday, but the capping marine
inversion will be erroding away and Friday morning may end up
being clearer than expected.

A large and cold low pressure system, currently centered just west
of the Aleutian Islands, will slowly push into Washington State
through Sunday. Strong and moderately moist west flow aloft will
steadily sag south with the system into Central California by
Friday and move little through Saturday, before shifting back to
the north and east on Sunday. As this whole setup shifts south, so
does the rain and mountain snow potential. While central and
northern California will see a big rain and snow impacts,
southwest California will be on the fringes of the system - but
not without some threats. As such, Friday through Saturday will
be characterized by many hours of steady light rain and mountain
snow along with gusty southwest winds, with a decreasing trend on
Sunday. The peak of this storm for our area will be on Saturday.
There is also enough cold air aloft on Saturday to bring the
potential for convective enhancements. While these enhancements
are not robust enough to bring actual thunderstorms, they may
bring isolated heavier cells with brief heavy downpours. Putting
it all together, storm total rain should range between 0.5 to 1.0
inches for most areas, but southwest facing foothills and western
San Luis Obispo County will see higher totals in the 1.0 to 3.0
inch range. While these totals are up a bit from previous
forecasts, the suite of projections (both deterministic and
ensembles) are in good agreement and confidence is fairly high on
the general details. While roads and outdoor events will be
impacted, and creeks will see healthy flows, flooding impacts
with these totals and rates should be limited to the most
vulnerable areas to mudslides. Snow levels continue to trend up
more, with accumulating snow now staying above 4,500 to 5,000
feet. Snow totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected for elevations
above 6,500 feet, with 3 to 6 inches for elevations between 5,500
and 6,500 feet. The risk for accumulating snow on the Interstate 5
Tejon Pass is now down to 10 percent. As far as the winds are
concerned, southwest wind gusts of 30 to 50 mph will be common for
the mountains and interior areas, with 20 to 35 mph common
elsewhere. The San Gabriel Mountains and interior foothills
however have a moderate risk of tapping into the stronger winds
aloft with potential for damaging winds. This also has the setup
for some mountain wave activity into the Antelope Valley, with a
low but present risk for localized damaging winds. Wind Advisories
and High Wind Watches were issued for these potentials.

Also issued some Winter Hazards for the higher elevations. The
eastern San Gabriels warranted a Winter Storm Watch. Although snow
totals and intensity will be light to moderate there, the
presence of snow with the potential for strong damaging winds
brings the potential for Winter Storm Warning conditions.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...29/204 PM.

Some solutions bring additional showers to the area Sunday Night
into Monday, but the majority are dry and warmer. Another system
now looks to bring some light rain potential to the area on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0213Z.

At 0115Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate to low confidence in rain timing, with higher confidence
in flight categories (generally between MVFR-VFR, with a chance
of IFR during rain). A mixture of VCSH to -RA is expected starting
this evening through the period, starting for northern sites
first. After the 00Z Sat, widespread -RA will be common.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in forecast, due to uncertainty in
rain timing. Cigs will mostly range from SCT015-OVC025. No
significant east wind is expected through the period.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in forecast. Cigs likely through the
period, that will generally be between BKN025-BKN040.

&&

.MARINE...29/950 PM.

Moderate-to-high confidence in the current forecast. Higher
confidence in seas relative to winds.

Wind and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels
through early Friday, then there is a 60-90 percent chance of SCA
winds and seas becoming widespread across the coastal waters from
northwest to southeast between early Friday and early Saturday.
Widespread SCA conditions will likely affect the waters through
early Sunday with hazardous seas being common across most of the
coastal waters. Seas along the Central Coast are expected to peak at
14-20 feet on Saturday. Seas for the inner waters south of Point
Conception will peak around 6-8 feet Saturday night.

Winds will diminish between Sunday night and Monday, but
hazardous seas may linger through at least Monday night or
Tuesday across the outer waters. There is a 30% chance of seas
across the outer waters remaining at or just below SCA levels
through at least Wednesday.

Another storm system will be possible as early as next Wednesday
night into early weekend, possibly bringing hazardous conditions
to the coastal waters. Confidence in exact details is still very
low at this time.

&&

.BEACHES...29/936 PM.

A west to northwest swell with a moderate period of 12-14 seconds
rapidly increase surf between Friday and Saturday, and then surf
will remain high throughout the weekend. Surf heights will peak
on Saturday for beaches along the Central Coast and on Sunday for
Ventura County beaches. For the Central Coast, surf heights will
reach 12-17 feet, and Ventura county will see 7-10 feet across
west and northwest facing shores. High Surf Advisories go into
effect early Friday morning for the Central Coast and late Friday
afternoon for Ventura County Coast, and last through the weekend.

For the Los Angeles County Coast, surf will be elevated on
Saturday, then peak Sunday through Monday with 3-6 feet and local
sets up to 7 feet possible through Monday evening.

There is a remote chance of very minor coastal flooding along the
immediate coastline at the time of overnight high tide
(Midnight-2AM) Friday night and Saturday night. This would
primarily be for beaches most susceptible to west to northwesterly
wave energy, such as portions of the Morro Bay and Ventura Pier
areas.

In the extended outlook, there is a potential for another high
surf and/or coastal flood event, however, models have been
struggling to settle down on specific details. For the middle to
latter parts of next week, it is best to continue to monitor the
latest information from the National Weather Service.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM PST Sunday
      for zones 38-344-345-353-378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon Friday to 10 AM
      PST Sunday for zone 377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     High Wind Watch in effect from Friday evening through Sunday
      afternoon for zones 379-381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday evening through
      Sunday morning for zone 380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM PST this evening for zone
      381. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Friday to 1 PM PST Sunday
      for zone 383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zones 645-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Saturday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Friday to 4 AM PST
      Monday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kittell/Thompson
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Lund/Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Lund/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS , (LOX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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Some may differ only in time posted.)

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