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000 FXUS66 KLOX 250321 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 821 PM PDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS...24/521 PM. High pressure will bring warmer weather to areas away from the coast through Wednesday. Closer to the coast, a persistent marine layer will continue to affect the coastal areas expanding into the coastal valleys late in the week. A cooling trend is expected for late week as onshore flow strengthens. Gusty onshore winds are expected each afternoon and evening for the mountains and interior valleys. A warming trend is possible early next week. && .SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...24/741 PM. ***UPDATE*** Quiet conditions are underway for Southwest California tonight, with light winds and clear skies away from the coast. The main forecast challenge will be the amount of low cloud coverage overnight into Wednesday morning. Low clouds will likely cover all coastal areas, with some intrusion into the coastal valleys as well. It is possible that a larger portion of the eastern Ventura and San Fernando Valleys will see low clouds but for now will retain mention of patchy coverage. A slightly warmer day is likely for coastal areas thanks for somewhat earlier clearing times compared to today. ***From Previous Discussion*** Onshore flow increases Wednesday, with the LAX-DAG onshore gradient peaking around 6 to 7 mb in the afternoon hours. There will also be a southerly component to winds, with the onshore LAX- BFL gradient reaching 6 mb. Gusty west to southwest winds will develop over the Antelope Valley in the afternoon, but should remain below advisory levels. Still seeing hot temperatures in the 90s for the Antelope Valley and interior San Luis Obispo County, but this additional onshore push should limit heating up north. Thursday, onshore flow will peak with the LAX-DAG onshore gradient peaking around 8 to 9 mb and the onshore LAX-BFL gradient peaking at 7 mb. This will support potentially advisory level gusty winds for the Antelope Valley and Santa Ynez Valley. Low clouds and fog should push deeper into the valleys thanks to the increased onshore flow. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...24/1130 AM. Ensemble guidance shows good agreement from Friday through Monday as upper level flow shifts to the west/northwest, and gradually strengthens over the timeframe. Both the GFS and EC agree on a trough passage by late Monday, but there is more uncertainty in temperatures for the extended period. Currently going with a middle of the road solution for now, with the potential for warming early next week. Friday, strong onshore flow continues, primarily from the west with an LAX-DAG gradient around 7 to 8 mb. Heights trend lower, which will support a deep morning marine layer to push far into the valleys and the coastal slopes. Heights fall more significantly on Saturday, so again expecting a very deep marine layer that may try to spill over into the Antelope Valley. There is the potential for gusty winds Friday and Saturday due to the stronger onshore push. Onshore flow is forecast to weaken Monday, and will gain more of a northerly component. && .AVIATION...25/0016Z. At 2255Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1200 feet deep. The inversion top as at 3300 feet and 26 degrees Celsius. Overall moderate confidence in the 00Z TAFs, except low confidence in the LA Valley sites. For the coastal sites, the onset of low clouds and flight restrictions could differ by +/- 2 hours from TAF times. For the Central Coast, IFR conditions are expected with a chance of LIFR at KSMX. Further south, IFR to MVFR conditions are expected, although the timing of flight category changes is lower confidence. There is a 40 percent chance that KVNY and KBUR will remain VFR through the period. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. MVFR cigs expected to arrive by 02Z, but the timing could differ by 1-2 hours. There is a 30% chance of IFR cigs initially, then lifting to MVFR. High confidence in and east winds staying under 8 knots. KBUR...Low confidence in the 00Z TAF. There is a 40 percent chance of VFR conditions through the period. && .MARINE...24/753 PM. Light and broad southerly flow will continue across much of the coastal waters into the first half of Friday. By Friday night, gusty northwest winds along with short period wind waves and rough seas will make their return, especially in the outer waters. Southerly winds will gradually expand through Thursday, eventually pushing up to Monterey County and shove the seasonal coastal jet well offshore. Local south to southeast winds of 10-15 knots are likely near all coasts in the morning hours, especially Wednesday. More significantly, seas will fall to nearly lake-like conditions by Thursday, with only 2-4 feet (locally 1 foot) total waves everywhere including the Central Coast. The coastal jet should reform quickly Thursday Night into Friday, with Gale Force (focused outer waters to Central Coast) and widespread choppy seas returning for the weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/Smith AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Stewart/Sweet/Kittell SYNOPSIS...Hall/Smith weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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