Acton Weather

389
FXUS66 KLOX 221755 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1055 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

updated aviation discussion

.SYNOPSIS...22/916 AM.

Showers with a chance of thunderstorms will continue today. A
weak Santa Ana will develop in the storm`s wake by the weekend for
dry and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...22/915 AM.

***UPDATE***

An upper level low was centered just S of Point Conception this
morning and is forecast to move over VTU/L.A. Counties early this
afternoon and E of the region by late afternoon. As it moves over
the area, cyclonic flow aloft combined with additional
instability due to solar heating will continue to develop showers
and widely scattered thunderstorms over the forecast area through
this afternoon. Flooding concerns remain in place due to high
intensity rainfall potential. In addition, conditions remain
favorable for potential severe thunderstorms with damaging winds
and even the small chance of a brief, weak waterspout or tornado.
Current forecast is in good shape and no forecast update is
expected this morning.

***From Previous Discussion***

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
rotate into these areas through Thursday afternoon/eve - including
LA/VTA as well. Street flooding will be possible along with
flooding and debris flows near recent burn areas where a flood
watch remains in effect.

Going forward, the models continue to aim the most rain towards
SLO and Santa Barbara Counties, and particularly the Santa Ynez
range and the south coast. Hourly rate rains could exceed an
1"/hr at times. The flood watch remains in effect and has been
extended for SB county to 6 PM Thursday. No watches currently in
effect in SLO County but any thunderstorms that develop could
result in heavy rain and flooding.

For VTA/LA counties, shower and thunderstorm coverage should
be less. However, this does NOT reduce the threat for damaging
winds or even a small chance for a brief, weak tornado. It
may even slightly increase the threat due to more of a discrete
storm mode.

Dry and warmer weather will return Fri and Sat with light
offshore in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to
mostly below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...22/235 AM.

A low grade Santa Ana event will continue into next week
continuing the dry and warmer pattern. Onshore flow is expected to
return around mid week with temperatures returning to normal
levels. There are some model solutions indicating a return of wet
weather just after Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1754Z.

At 1715Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Under any
showers and thunderstorms MVFR conds is likely. Otherwise VFR
conds are expected for the most part.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conditions should mostly
remain VFR with MVFR possible at times. Isolated to widely
scattered showers across the area through 23/18Z. Low chance of a
thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. Good
confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Isolated to widely
scattered showers across the area through 23/12Z. Low chance of a
thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. VFR CIGs
expected except MVFR conds possible under any activity.

&&

.MARINE...22/848 AM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely at times before
winds shift more to NW and become more widespread on Friday. For
Saturday through Monday morning, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30-40% chance of SCA
level winds Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Monday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For today through Monday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most
areas. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late
Friday afternoon and evening.

Through today, showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact all
of the coastal waters. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally rough seas and
even waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones
      348>353. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late tonight for
      zones 354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flood Watch in effect until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for zones
      362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/MW/Sirard
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...RAT/Sirard/DB
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox