Acton Weather

001
FXUS66 KLOX 141231
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
431 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...13/1140 PM.

A large storm system will bring two significant rainfall events
to the area. The first will occur this morning into the
afternoon. The second will affect the area from the predawn hours
Saturday through Saturday afternoon. The storm will generate
moderate to heavy rain with possible flooding of roadways and
burn scars during these peaks. Further rain is possible both
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...14/309 AM.

...AT LEAST 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAJOR IMPACTS
MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS...

Part one of the storm system is now over the area. Currently the
heaviest rain is focused over SBA county. The front will then
slowly move to the east with heavier rain moving over VTA county
towards dawn and over LA county mid morning. The rain will then
taper off in the afternoon as the front pushes out of the area.
Currently about 1 to 1.5 inches of rain has fallen over coastal
SLO county and western SBA county. VTA county has only seen about
a quarter inch of rain with the exception of slopes north of Ojai
where up to an inch has fallen. As expected the SBA south coast
has received the most rain anywhere from an inch to in excess of 4
inches.

Part two of the storm will start this evening. An upper low
currently to the west of Pt Conception will move to the SW through
the day. This evening it will swing up to the ENE. This will put
an area of southerly flow and max PVA over the area for at least
18 hours. The max intensity of the this system will be over LA and
VTA county. The PVA max will generate a threat of TSTMs through
the period with the best chc occuring Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings continue to indicate favorable profiles for TSTMs and
severe weather, including a small chance of weak tornados, strong
and gusty winds, very heavy rain and hail. During this 24 hour
period (6pm tonight to 6pm Saturday) 2 to 3 inches of rain will
likely fall across the flat portions of the csts/vlys south of Pt
Conception with 2 to 4 inches likely across the coastal slopes.
Areas north of Pt Conception and the far interior will likely
receive 1 to 1.5 inches. Rainfall rates will mostly be near a half
inch per hour but the heavier bursts will be near 1 inch per hour
and these rates are capable of producing flash flooding and a
flood watch is in effect until Saturday evening everywhere
south of SLO County except for the Cuyama Valley. The watch does
include Catalina Island and the Channel Islands.

Snow will not be much of an issue with snow levels over 7500 ft.

The rain will slowly taper off Saturday night and by mid morning
Sunday the area should be fairly dry. Another system riding into
the area will bring an increasing chc of rain later Sunday
afternoon (Central Coast) and overnight south of Pt Conception).
This system will not be nearly as wet as the current system.

Needless to say with all of the rain and clouds, max temps will be
well below normal with almost all max temps across the csts/vly
reaching only the upper 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...14/309 AM.

Both the GFS and the EC forecast another upper low to rotate down
into the through the area on Monday and Tuesday. This is a colder
system with lower PWATs (.5-.75 inches). So while there will be
periods of rain through the period the two day rainfall totals
will likely range from a half to three quarters of an inch (with
some higher amounts in the mtns and lesser amounts across the far
interior). Since this is a cooler system, snow levels will be
lower likely around 6000 ft.

Wednesday looks dry for now, but the storm pattern will persist
and another upper low will bring a chc of rain to the area Thu and
Fri.

Max temps will mostly be in the lower to mid 60s across the
csts/vlys which is 6 to 12 degrees blo normals. Wednesday will be
the exception with its drier and a little sunnier conditions
allowing highs to warm into the mid and upper 60s with a few lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1230Z.

At 1105 at KLAX, there was no marine layer or an inversion. There
was a deep moist layer up to at least 6000 ft.

Low confidence in all TAFs as a cold front moves through the
area. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently as periods of heavy rain
move through the area. MVFR cigs are mostly likely but IFR conds
will occur esp 1-2SM vsbys. Mostly MVFR or low VFR cigs/vis are
more likely aft 21Z.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms from KSBA northward thru
12Z. After 12Z, there will be a 10-20% Chance of thunderstorms
south of Point Conception.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025
cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at
times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM
vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR. Better confidence in
improved conditions after 21Z. High confidence in easterly winds
above 8 knots through 14Z-21Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as periods of heavy rain move through the airfield. BKN-OVC015-025
cond cigs are mostly likely but BKN-OVC006-008 conds will occur at
times. Vsbys will mostly range from 3-4SM in -RA BR but 1-2SM
vsbys will also occur at times with +RA BR. Better confidence in
improved conditions after 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/1241 AM.

There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across the coastal
waters through Saturday night. For this morning, the thunderstorm
threat will exist from around Point Conception northward. For
Friday night through Saturday night, the chances for thunderstorms
will shift to the coastal waters south of Point Conception. Any
thunderstorms that develop would be capable of producing brief
heavy rain, dangerous cloud to surface lightning, gusty and
erratic winds, locally rough seas and possible waterspouts.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Tonight through Saturday, high confidence in
combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas for
all of the Outer Waters. On Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels. For Monday through Tuesday, there
is a 70-90% chance of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Friday night,
high confidence in a combination of SCA level winds and seas. For
Saturday and Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining
below SCA levels. For Monday and Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance
of a combination of SCA level winds and seas.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, generally moderate
to high confidence in current forecast, though lower confidence in
winds on Saturday. Through tonight, there is a 60-80% chance of
SCA level winds across the Santa Barbara Channel with winds and
seas remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Saturday, there is
a 40-60% chance of SCA level southeasterly winds, with a 30%
chance of brief Gale Force winds. However, the strength and
direction of winds may vary on Saturday as models are not
handling the low pressure system placement well. On Sunday, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For
Monday through Tuesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level
winds.

&&

.BEACHES...14/1241 AM.

A moderately long period west-northwest swell will bring
hazardous surf conditions to portions of Southwest California late
this evening through at least Saturday morning. In addition to
the west-northwest swell, a storm system will bring gusty
southerly winds which will add a southerly wind swell component
to the surf. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES remain in effect for the Central
Coast and the Ventura county beaches. Please refer to the LAXCFWLOX
and LAXSRFLOX for details.

There is a 20-30% chance that HIGH SURF ADVISORIES may be needed
for the LA county beaches, beginning Friday morning.

Additionally, there is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms across all
the beaches at times through Saturday night. Any thunderstorm that
forms could be accompanied by will be capable of producing locally
strong winds, small hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rainfall,
and/or a brief, weak, tornado.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
      Saturday evening for zones
      87-88-346>348-353>358-362-366>375-377>383-548>550. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday evening for
      zones 349>352-376. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST this morning
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RAT/RS/KL
BEACHES...RAT/KL
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox