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765
FXUS66 KLOX 261237
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
537 AM PDT Sat May 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...26/342 AM.

Low pressure over the region will bring a slight chance of showers
to some areas this morning, then it will become partly cloudy. Gusty
winds will affect portions of the region through tonight. There will
be areas of night through morning clouds and fog west of the mountains
tonight through next week. A warming trend is expected Sunday through
Tuesday, with high temperatures rising to above normal levels. A
cooling trend will occur Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...26/410 AM.

An upper low was centered over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo
Counties early this morning. There was a solid deck of clouds
north of Point Conception and in the Ventura County mountains.
Elsewhere, the cloud pattern was very chaotic, although during
the past couple of hours, clouds have become more widespread
across the mountains of Los Angeles County and the eastern San
Gabriel Valley. Expect this trend to continue this morning, with
skies generally mostly cloudy in most areas by daybreak, except
possibly partly cloudy in some coastal sections south of Pt
Conception and in the Antelope Valley.

With all of the moisture associated with the upper low, there is a
slight chance of showers this morning, mainly north of Pt
Conception in the vicinity of the center of the upper low, across
the northern slopes of the VTU County mountains due to upslope
northwest to north flow, and across the foothills and mountains
of L.A. County due to strongly cyclonic flow pushing into that
area. There could be a few snow showers above 6000 feet, but no
snow accumulation is expected.

The elongated upper low will move to the east of the region this
afternoon. Expect skies to become partly cloudy to mostly sunny
across the region this afternoon, with the most sunshine across
coastal areas. Max temps may be up a couple of degrees today, but
temps will remain well below normal.

Gusty winds were already affecting areas below passes and canyons
of the Santa Ynez Range this morning. While they may diminish some
for a while later this morning, increasingly strong offshore north
to south gradients and developing subsidence on the western side
of the departing upper low will likely cause advisory level winds
later this afternoon through late tonight, with the strongest winds
expected west of Goleta. Advisory level northwest winds are also
expected on the Central Coast this afternoon and evening, with
advisory level west winds in the Antelope Valley from late this
morning through this evening. Gusty winds are also likely through
the I-5 corridor, but should remain below advisory levels.

The upper low will move into northern Utah late tonight, then move
little through Monday, all the while weakening. Expect a more
typical marine layer to develop tonight, with areas of low clouds
in most coastal and valley areas with the exception of the south
coast of SBA County. Skies should become mostly sunny Sunday
afternoon. Max temps will jump several degrees on Sunday in the
valley, and as much as 10 to 14 degrees in the interior valleys
of SLO County, in the mountains and in the deserts. More modest
warming is expected on the coastal plain. This should bring temps
to near normal in most areas.

Rising heights and thicknesses will likely cause the marine layer
to become more shallow Sun night and Monday, with less in the way
of low clouds in the more inland valley areas. Another round of
gusty northwest to north winds is possible across southern SBA
County Sunday evening, but below advisory levels. Significant
warming is expected in the mtns, deserts and interior valleys
of SLO County on Monday, with temps into the lower to mid 90s
in the Antelope Valley and SLO County interior valleys. In the
warmest valley locations in the L.A. and VTU County valleys,
highs will rise into the mid to possibly upper 80s. Above normal
temps are expected in all areas with the exception of locations
close to the beaches, where temps will be near normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...26/441 AM.

An upper level ridge will briefly move across the area on Tue,
and heights will rise a bit more. This should bring a bit more
warming to interior areas on Tue, but increasing onshore gradients
may keep temps from rising much west of the mountains. A trough
will approach the West Coast Tue night/Wed, causing heights to
fall and onshore flow to increase. The marine layer should deepen,
with coastal night thru morning low clouds pushing farther into
the valleys. Max temps will be lower in all areas Wed, with the
most significant cooling in the mtns, deserts and interior valleys.

The models diverge beyond Wed. The EC takes the trough across CA
into the Great Basin on Thu, then into the Rockies Fri. The GFS
shows the trough sharpening and pinching off into an upper low
just west of Monterey Thu afternoon, tracks it across far northern
sections of the forecast area Thu night, then into southern
Nevada Fri. Either way, there should be more cooling across the
region Thu, with plenty of night thru morning low clouds and fog
in coastal and valley areas, likely to the coastal slopes. The big
difference would be on Fri, with the EC showing significant warming,
and the GFS keeping very cool weather across the region. Since the
06Z run of the GFS is quite different than its previous runs, will
lean toward the more progressive and warmer EC solution for Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1237Z.

At 1209Z, there was a deep moist layer with no inversion to speak
of around KLAX.

Moderate confidence with 12z TAF in respect to cig categories
through 03z this evening. Most areas were in MVFR category with
some VFR conditions as well. Weak inversion will allow stratocu
deck to develop and just as fast dissipate through this morning
for areas S of Point Conception. Better confidence for MVFR conds
N of Point Conception. Lower confidence with cig categories and
timing of stratus developing late this evening. Best guess is that
if some cigs do develop, they will be between MVFR, but 30%
chance for IFR cigs. Periods of moderate wind shear and turbulence
are possible at KSBA through 10Z Sunday.

KLAX...There is a 10-20 percent chance of IFR conditions
redeveloping through 15z this morning. Moderate confidence that
cigs will remain in MVFR category over the next 24 hours.
Otherwise expect VFR conds after 18z today.

KBUR...There is a 20-30 percent chance of IFR conditions
redeveloping through 16z, Better confidence for VFR conds later
this afternoon and through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...26/315 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the current
forecast. There is a 70% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level northwest winds across the southern portion of the Outer
Waters from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island from this
through late Sunday night. There is also a 60%-70% chance of
advisory level gusts for the northern portion of the Outer Waters
today through late Sunday night, and a 50%-60% chance of SCA
winds Mon night through Wednesday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in the current
forecast. A SCA has been issued valid for the inner waters N of
Point Sal this afternoon through tonight.  Otherwise winds and
seas should remain below SCA level through Wednesday.

For the waters south of Point Conception, through tonight, there
is a 70% percent chance of SCA level winds at times for PZZ650,
strongest across western portions. For zone PZZ655, there is a
30%-40% chance of SCA level gusts late this afternoon through this
evening. Mainly the NW and western portions.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 PM PDT this
      evening for zones 34-35. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zones
      39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT
      this evening for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 3 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (MON-FRI).

Strong rip currents and elevated surf could develop at Central
Coast beaches late Tuesday through early next Thursday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...Kaplan
MARINE...Kaplan
SYNOPSIS...DB

weather.gov/losangeles

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