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436 FXUS66 KLOX 010341 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 841 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...30/1045 AM. Skies will be clear except for night through morning low clouds across the coasts and some valleys through next weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be 3 to 6 degrees below normal through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...30/839 PM. ***UPDATE*** Temperatures varied dramatically between the coasts and the interior, due to a solid blanket of marine layer clouds that persisted through the day along the Central Coast. Clouds were more sparse for Ventura and LA Counties, where highs reached the mid 60s to low 70s, in contrast with the cooler 50s for the Central Coast. As the low approaches through Wednesday expecting more marine layer clouds that extend further into the valleys and linger longer each day. The current forecast generally looks on track, but may need to increase onshore winds over interior San Luis Obispo County and the Antelope Valley for Tuesday afternoon. ***From Previous Discussion*** A quiet weather pattern is expected this week across southwest California with temperatures near to slightly below normal. A weak upper low currently over the Bay Area will slowly drift south Tuesday and Wednesday. This will bring about a slow rise in the marine layer depth and bring a few degrees of cooling to the coastal valleys and eventually bring some low clouds there as well, possibly as early as Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a lot more of the same weather this week with clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon. Moderate to strong onshore flow will maintain the usual gusty winds into the Antelope Valley each afternoon but mostly below advisory levels. .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...30/1055 AM. Really just more of the same Friday through the weekend with temperatures very similar day to day and low clouds pushing in to some of the valleys each morning. Ensemble based long range forecasts do show a substantial shift in the weather towards the middle of next week (July 8th or 9th). A very warm upper high is forecast to develop and trigger the first heatwave of the summer. The mdls have also been consistently hinting at the first monsoonal moisture push of the season as well which would bring the threat of afternoon convection to the area if it develops. Please stay tuned as we monitor this developing situation over the upcoming days. && .AVIATION...01/0144Z. At 0014Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 2100 feet with a temperature of 26 Celsius. High confidence in VFR TAFs with evening gusty SW winds at airfields: KPRB, KWJF and KPMD. Moderate confidence in remaining airfields. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off +/- 2 hours and flight cat minimums by 1. There is a 20% chc of IFR-LIFR conds at KVNY 11Z-16Z Tue. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chc of Bkn004 conds overnight. No significant east wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30-40% chance of VFR conditions. && .MARINE...30/128 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday, conditions are much quieter than usual, with winds and seas expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA winds on Wednesday. Then, increasing to likely chances for the remainder of the work week - with a low chance for Gale force winds Thursday afternoon through the weekend. Seas are expected to be near SCA levels Wednesday night through the weekend, especially north of Pt. Conception and 50 NM from the shoreline. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA Criteria. There is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds on Thursday and Friday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate confidence in current forecast. Local SCA wind gusts are possible nearshore Mailbu and across the San Pedro Channel Mon and Tue evening. Wind gusts will approach SCA levels across western portions of the SBA Channel Mon and Tue evening. Best chances for SCA winds appear to be on Friday across western portions of the SBA Channel. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday. Patchy dense fog will impact the coastal waters, especially north of Point Conception through Monday. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Phillips/MW AVIATION...Phillips MARINE...Black/Lund SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox |
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